2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report
Tua Tagovailoa

School: Alabama
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 218
Eligibility: JR
Uniform: #1
Position: Quarterback
Evaluated by: Austin Smith
smith.austinj14@gmail.com
February 1, 2020
Prospect Overview
Under Nick Saban, the Alabama Crimson Tide have become a factory for churning out blue-chip NFL prospects with the exception of the quarterback position. For years, I questioned why highly-recruited quarterback would ever choose Alabama simply because they were the definition of a run-first offense. Running backs and offensive linemen are what Saban's offensive coordinators typically featured, and while plenty of talented receivers have made their way through Tuscaloosa, the Heisman candidates have always come from the player taking handoffs. Then the Ewa Beach-native shocked the world by choosing the Crimson Tide over many of the more pass-happy systems at Oregon, UCLA, and USC.

As a freshman, Tagovailoa (pronounced TUNG-goh-vai-LOA) saw mainly mop-up duty in many of Alabama's lopsided wins, and anticipation grew as the prospect of the countries' top-powerhouse program finally having a quarterback that had legitimate NFL talent. Sophomore Jalen Hurts was leading the Tide from under center, but the nation stood witness to Tagovailoa's greatness when he replaced Hurts at halftime of the National Championship and propelled them to a come-from-behind overtime victory over Georgia. The highlight of Tagovailoa launching the deep ball to Devonta Smith on 2nd and 26 sent shockwaves through the college football stratosphere all offseason, and as a sophomore, he lived up to the hype.
During that 2018 campaign, Tagovailoa split reps with Hurts during the first month of the season, and would also miss numerous fourth quarters after being named the starter - due to Alabama rolling over the competition. All this time giving way to reserve QBs likely cost him the Heisman Trophy, but he still put outstanding numbers with 3,966 passing yards at 11.2 yards per attempt with a 43:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 69 percent completion rate. Tagovailoa led the Tide to another National Championship appearance, but a pair of early interceptions put Alabama at a deficit, and Clemson would go on to win. Despite the uncharacteristic performance, the Alabama signal-caller still entered the 2019 season as a favorite to not only win the Heisman but also be selected first in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Tagovailoa was living up to those lofty expectations and was on pace to set career-highs in nearly every passing category when an ankle injury similar to the one he suffered late in the 2018 campaign slowed him, followed by a gruesome hip-dislocation a few weeks later. The latter injury ended his season, as he finished completing 71.4 percent of his passes for 2,840 yards at 11.3 yards per attempt with 33 touchdowns to only three interceptions. Despite the injury, Tagovailoa chose to forgo his remaining eligibility and declare for the 2020 draft, where many still have him pegged as a top-10 selection. Still, the three injuries he suffered in just over a calendar year are worrisome to many and have made way for LSU's Joe Burrow to become the favorite as the quarterback selected first overall.
Positives
When healthy, Tagovailoa has the most electric arm in this class. Yes, guys like Jordan Love and Jacob Eason have rare arm strength, but no one can match the combination of velocity and accuracy that Tagovailoa puts on his passes. His deep-ball accuracy might be the best I have ever seen coming out of college. Many hear the term "deep-ball accuracy" and believe that it's this wonderful gift to hit a receiver in stride down the field. That is not entirely accurate. It's the receiver's job to pace himself while tracking the deep ball to catch it in stride. It's the quarterback to guide him to the open area in coverage, or just lead him up the field if he has gotten over the top of the defense. That takes ideal ball-placement, arm-strength, loft, velocity, and, most importantly, hand strength to deliver a lasting spiral. Many forget about that last part, but many underthrows are merely a result of a poor spiral that comes undone and loses velocity due to the wind resistance it faces traveling through the air. This doesn't happen to Tagovailoa's throws, and that, along with the combination of factors I listed are a big reason why he is so dangerous throwing the ball down the field.

Another attribute that makes Tagovailoa so successful is his discipline. When things are ideal in the pocket, his footwork is consistent, as is his balance, weight distribution through the process, and throwing motion. These are all factors in being an accurate quarterback, and they help maximize the abilities of his arm. He has improved his footwork in the pocket more and more through his time in Tuscaloosa, and when he flushed out of the pocket, Tagovailoa displays the athleticism and balance to make throws on the move. The NFL has transitioned into a league where quarterbacks that don't possess mobility are slowly being phased out, and with him being slightly undersized with an injury history to boot, it's vital that Tagovailoa be able to make plays on the go.
I am also a big fan of what goes on with Tagovailoa north of his shoulders. This is a player that processes the game quickly and manipulates coverages. Run-Pass Options are showing up in every NFL playbook, and Alabama was lethal during Tagovailoa's tenure at running these plays. He sells the run so well before putting that lightning-quick release into action and firing an accurate pass to his target. Many that question Tagovailoa's statistics are quick to point out that his numbers were inflated by his receiver's abilities after the catch. However, what good are those abilities if the quarterback doesn't give them an accurate ball to catch at full speed? Timing routes like these are just short possession routes if the quarterback can't hit them in stride, and while that is the receiver's responsibility on deep balls, it falls on the quarterback's shoulders for short and intermediate routes. Also, I love Tagovailoa's poise in big moments. Yes, against Georgia and Clemson in 2018, as well as LSU in 2019, he made some mistakes, but his blood pressure never seems to rise. Tagovailoa displays a short memory, and more importantly, a humbleness to identify and fix the mistake. Coaches love this quality in a signal-caller and leader.
Areas for Improvement
The biggest thing Tagovailoa will have to change at the NFL level is he needs to learn when the play is over. For 21 other players on the field, the referee's whistle means the play is over. However, quarterbacks have to develop an instinct of when get rid of the ball or hit the deck and move on to the next play. It's an off switch for their competitive nature, which in Tagovailoa's case is extremely strong. He has to figure out when the risk of keeping the play alive is no longer worth the possibilities that could fall in the defense's favor. Yes, Tagovailoa has made some extraordinary plays in these moments, but at the speed of the NFL, those will be few and far between. These plays also involve Tagovailoa taking punishment at the end of them, and with his injury history, most coaches will not want to risk losing their franchise quarterback.

I'd also like to see Tagovailoa improve prior to the snap. There are times to predetermine throws and others where you have to honor what the play design and make a decision based on what the defense shows you once the play has begun. I understand wanting to take a shot deep at an opportune time, but once again, there has to be a level of restraint you demonstrate if the defense is prepared for it. Turnovers can turn a game around, and forcing the issue or ignoring the defense usually means putting the ball in harm's way. Speaking of taking care of the ball, Tagovailoa has to do a better job of keeping it close to his frame in all scenarios. It gets away from him when he is maneuvering in the pocket or avoiding the rush, as well as when he takes off. Once again, with the speed of the game, you can never account for every defender, which means you are just a hit away from the football coming loose.
Draft Stock
The injury history is going to be a concern for anyone interested in his services, and we may not get a definitive answer on his hip before the draft comes. We've gotten nothing but positive reports since the surgery, but even a full recovery won't change the fact that this is his third significant injury in less than a year. Having said that, he's my top quarterback in this draft without the injuries. That's not a knock on Joe Burrow, who I believe is one of the top five players in this class. We just haven't seen many players that throw the football like Tagovailoa in recent history. His ability to be accurate on all three levels is rare, and the hype that has surrounded him since he stepped foot on campus in Tuscaloosa is going to follow him to whichever team drafts him.

Tagovailoa is a leader, worker, and an ideal face of a franchise, and not every quarterback comes in that package. Not only did he live up to the hype at Alabama, but he did something that no signal-caller during Saban's era in Tuscaloosa has done. Tagovailoa's talents forced Saban to approve changing their offensive strategy and open things up in the passing game like he never has before. That should tell you everything you need to know about Tagovailoa's rare talent. I personally think the draft starts at three with Cincinnati locked in on Burrow and Washington equally committed to Chase Young. If that holds true, teams that can see past Tagovailoa's injury history have to start considering him at three, whether it's Detroit or a team looking to trade up to that position.
Games Evaluated
Notes from Film
Scouting Video Courtesy of JustBombsProductions